AS Roma host Juventus at Stadio Olimpico in Rome on 1 March 2026 in a high-stakes Serie A clash between fourth and fifth. Roma sit on 50 points, four ahead of Juventus on 46, with Champions League and Europa League places on the line. Bookmakers marginally lean towards the hosts, but keep the market very tight, reflecting how finely balanced this game looks on paper.
The official prediction model backs Roma on a “win or draw” double chance, with 35% for a home win, 35% for the draw and 30% for Juventus. That stance is strongly supported by Roma’s underlying numbers at home: 9 wins from 13, with just 6 goals conceded (0.5 per game) and 19 scored (1.5 per game). They have also kept 7 home clean sheets in the league, highlighting a very robust defence.
Juventus are more explosive in attack over the season (1.7 goals per game vs Roma’s 1.3), and their last-five attacking index is a perfect 100%, with 11 goals in that span. However, their defensive level has dropped sharply recently (def 11%), conceding 1.6 per game in the last five, and their away record is less dominant: 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Head-to-head history slightly favours Juventus (75% in the comparison model), but recent meetings in Rome have been tight: 1-1 in April 2025 (2024 season), 1-1 in May 2024 (2023 season), and a 1-0 Roma win in March 2023 (2022 season). Crucially, Roma arrive heavily hit in attack: A. Dovbyk, P. Dybala, S. El Shaarawy, E. Ferguson and M. Soulé are all listed as missing. Juventus are also without key forwards A. Milik and D. Vlahovic, plus M. Locatelli and E. Holm, which should further reduce the goal threat on both sides.
Officially, the recommended outcome is “Double chance: AS Roma or draw”. Given Roma’s defensive solidity at home, their slightly better form (53% vs 47%), and Juventus’ recent defensive wobble, a low-scoring home-positive result is the most logical scenario. A 1-1 or narrow 1-0 Roma win fits the goal averages (Roma 1.5 for/0.5 against at home; Juve 1.4 for/1.0 against away).
From a betting perspective, the clearest value is aligning with the prediction via the home side. In the 1X2 market, Roma are priced up to 2.73 (1xBet), with 2.70 at Pinnacle and 2.67 at Marathonbet. Considering Roma’s home record and the injury-depleted attacks on both sides, backing Roma to win at around 2.70 offers solid value, while more cautious bettors can mirror the model with Roma or draw in double-chance markets where available.
