Bayer Leverkusen host Olympiakos Piraeus at the BayArena on 24 February 2026 in a UEFA Champions League Round of 32 second-leg clash. Leverkusen hold the higher overall ranking (16th vs 18th) and come in as clear favourites, with bookmakers pricing the home win around 1.75–1.87 and the away win drifting out beyond 4.00. A draw is also seen as less likely, generally around 3.75–4.10.
The official prediction model leans strongly towards Bayer Leverkusen avoiding defeat, with a “Double chance: Bayer Leverkusen or draw” advice and probability split of 45% home, 45% draw, just 10% away. That aligns with Leverkusen’s underlying numbers: they average 2.0 goals scored at home in this Champions League campaign (8 in 4 games), albeit conceding 2.5 per home game.
Olympiakos, by contrast, are more fragile at the back, conceding 2.3 goals per game away (9 in 4) while scoring only 1.0. Overall they allow 1.8 goals per match in the competition, compared to Leverkusen’s 1.6. The comparison metrics also favour the Germans across the board: form (53% vs 47%), attack (53% vs 47%), defence (64% vs 36%), and even Poisson-based distribution (56% vs 44%). Head-to-head is balanced historically in this campaign (one win each), but crucially Leverkusen just won 2–0 in Piraeus, demonstrating they can control this opponent.
Injuries are more concentrated on the home side (E. Ben Seghir, M. Flekken, N. Tella, I. Traore all ruled out; L. Bade questionable), but the prediction model still gives Leverkusen a strong edge, suggesting squad depth is sufficient. Olympiakos list several “Inactive” absentees of their own, further limiting their rotation options.
Officially, the recommended outcome is “Bayer Leverkusen or draw” (double chance), with a home-leaning low-to-medium scoring game.
Based on Leverkusen’s 2.0 home goals for and Olympiakos’ 2.3 away goals against, a 2–1 home victory fits both the model and the averages. For bettors seeking value, the pure home win is attractively priced: 1.83 at Marathonbet or Pinnacle, and up to 1.87 at 1xBet, looks justified given Leverkusen’s superior metrics and the recent 2–0 away success. Those preferring safety can follow the model’s advice via double chance in combination bets, using the strong 90% “no away win” implication.
