Brighton host Arsenal at the Amex Stadium on 2026-03-04 in Premier League Regular Season - 29. Brighton sit 12th on 37 points, while Arsenal top the table with 64 points. Using the prediction.percent model, Arsenal and the draw are joint favourites at 45% each, with Brighton just 10%. Bookmakers still make Arsenal clear favourites, pricing the away win around 1.61–1.69, ahead of the draw (3.47–4.35) and home win (4.59–5.40).
Statistical Justification
The official prediction model gives Arsenal a 66.3% edge in the comparison.total metric versus 33.7% for Brighton, underlining a strong away bias. Arsenal’s overall form string (WWLWDWWWWWDWDWLWWWWWDDLWWDDWW) translates into 19 wins from 29, with 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game. Away from home they average 1.7 scored and 0.9 conceded, a robust profile for travelling favourites.
Brighton are competitive at home (6W-6D-2L), scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 per home match, but their last-five “form” metric is only 47% versus Arsenal’s 73%. Defensively, Brighton’s last-five “def” at 69% suggests some resilience, yet Arsenal’s “att” at 92% and 12 goals in their last five (2.4 per game) point to the visitors creating more and better chances.
Head-to-head is heavily tilted: the comparison.h2h gives Arsenal 85% vs 15%. Recent meetings show Arsenal unbeaten in the last five league clashes (3 wins, 2 draws), including a 3-0 away win at Brighton in 2023 and a 2-1 home win in December 2025. Injury-wise, Brighton miss defenders S. Tzimas and A. Webster, potentially weakening their back line, while Arsenal’s absentees (M. Merino, M. Dowman) and questionable stars (M. Ødegaard, D. Rice, B. White) could slightly temper their dominance but not overturn it.
Given Brighton’s solid scoring rate and Arsenal’s strong but not flawless defence, a 1-2 away win aligns well with the goalsFor/Against averages.
The Verdict & Betting Angle
Official Outcome (aligned with the model’s “Double chance: draw or Arsenal” and 45% away / 45% draw): Arsenal not to lose, with a lean to an Arsenal win and a projected 2-1 scoreline.
Best Bet from the odds: the primary market is “Match Winner – Away (Arsenal)” at around 1.61–1.69 (notably 1.61 at Unibet and SBO, up to 1.69 at 1xBet). This price fairly reflects Arsenal’s statistical superiority and dominant H2H profile, while still offering usable value in accumulators or as a single for those backing the league leaders.
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