Atalanta host Borussia Dortmund at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo on 25 February 2026 in a UEFA Champions League Round of 32 second leg. Dortmund carry a strong analytical edge despite being away from home, and the official prediction model gives them a 45% chance of victory and 45% for the draw, with Atalanta rated just 10%. Bookmakers, however, still price Atalanta as slight favourites in the match odds, creating a clear value gap.
The prediction engine explicitly advises “Double chance: draw or Borussia Dortmund”, reflecting Dortmund’s overall superiority in the comparison metrics (total 60.5% vs 39.7%). Offensively, Dortmund average 2.3 goals per game in this Champions League campaign (21 in 9), significantly higher than Atalanta’s 1.1 (10 in 9). Even away from home, Dortmund score 2.3 on average, while Atalanta’s home attack sits at 1.5 goals per game.
Defensively, Atalanta concede 1.3 goals per game, Dortmund 1.9, but the last head-to-head in this tie ended 2–0 to Dortmund in Germany, and the broader H2H comparison heavily favours the Germans (h2h index 88% vs 13%). Recent form indicators also lean Dortmund’s way: their last five show better attacking (33% vs Atalanta’s 29%) and defensive (75% vs 71%) ratings.
Squad News
Squad news further supports the away side. Atalanta are missing C. De Ketelaere and G. Raspadori, both important attacking options, and have S. Kolasinac questionable. Dortmund’s absences are more peripheral, and their key attacker S. Guirassy – the club’s top scorer and joint top assist provider in this competition with 4 goals and 3 assists – is fully available. That aligns with the model’s view of Dortmund as the more reliable side to avoid defeat.
Expected Outcome
Officially, the expected outcome is that Borussia Dortmund do not lose: double chance draw or Dortmund. Given Atalanta’s moderate scoring numbers and Dortmund’s strong but occasionally leaky defence, a controlled, relatively tight game is likely. A 1–1 draw fits the goal averages (Atalanta around 1.5 at home, Dortmund 2.3 away, moderated by knockout tension), with Dortmund well capable of nicking a 2–1 win.
Betting Perspective
From a betting perspective, the market overvalues Atalanta. With home win odds clustered around 2.10–2.21 and away prices near 3.05–3.25, the smarter angle is to back Dortmund on the double chance (X2) in combination markets, or simply oppose the short home price in 1x2, in line with the “draw or Borussia Dortmund” advice.
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