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Bournemouth vs Liverpool Prediction: Key Stats and Betting Tips

Bournemouth welcome Liverpool to Vitality Stadium on 20 September 2026 in Premier League Regular Season - 5, with both sides looking to sharpen their early‑season trajectories. The south‑coast club have been stubborn but winless so far, while Liverpool arrive unbeaten yet still searching for a statement away performance.

Vitality Stadium has recently produced some wild encounters between these two, including Bournemouth’s 3-2 win in January 2026. With attacking talent such as Marcus Tavernier and Evanilson for the hosts and Alexander Isak and Cody Gakpo for Liverpool, another open contest looks likely.

From a standings perspective, Bournemouth sit 15th on 3 points after four matches, while Liverpool are 8th with 6 points. The underlying numbers and betting markets frame this as a game where Liverpool are favourites, but the prediction models give Bournemouth a puncher’s chance, especially at home.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool Key Stats

  • Bournemouth are 15th with 3 points from 4 matches, drawing 3 and losing 1 with a 6-7 goal record.
  • In their last Premier League meeting at Vitality Stadium on 24 January 2026, Bournemouth beat Liverpool 3-2.
  • Across 4 league games this season, Liverpool have scored 6 and conceded 4, keeping 2 clean sheets in tournament statistics.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool — Tale of the Tape

  • Position: 15 vs 8
  • Points: 3 vs 6
  • Goals For: 6 vs 6
  • Goals Against: 7 vs 4
  • Clean Sheets: Bournemouth 0, Liverpool 2 (tournament statistics)

After four rounds, Bournemouth’s profile is that of a competitive but fragile side. They have yet to win, but three draws indicate resilience. With 6 goals scored and 7 conceded across 4 matches, their games average 3.25 goals, underlining how open they have been at both ends.

Liverpool, meanwhile, are unbeaten with 1 win and 3 draws. Their 6-4 goal difference reflects a more controlled balance: 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. The early table suggests Liverpool are operating at a higher baseline, but not yet converting superiority into wins consistently.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool Key Matchups

M. Tavernier vs A. Isak

Marcus Tavernier has been Bournemouth’s standout performer so far. In 4 appearances (352 minutes), the midfielder has scored 3 goals, leading the team’s scoring charts. He has taken 12 shots with 8 on target, produced 131 passes at 84% accuracy and created 8 key passes. Defensively, he has 8 tackles and 44 duels with 22 won, but his aggressive style has also brought 2 yellow cards.

Alexander Isak is Liverpool’s main goal threat. The striker has 3 goals in 4 appearances (334 minutes), with 10 shots and 6 on target. His all‑round game is strong: 41 passes at 85% accuracy, 2 key passes, and 24 duels with 13 won. Isak’s ability to finish clinically and link play contrasts with Tavernier’s box‑to‑box influence. Containing Tavernier’s surges while denying Isak service will be pivotal for both sides.

Evanilson vs C. Gakpo

Evanilson has yet to score but has become Bournemouth’s creative hub in the final third. In 4 matches (335 minutes), he has delivered 3 assists, with 78 passes (70% accuracy) and 6 key passes. He has been heavily involved physically too, engaging in 47 duels (21 won) and drawing 8 fouls, though he has picked up 1 yellow card.

Cody Gakpo has been Liverpool’s chief creator. In 4 appearances (281 minutes), he has 1 goal and 3 assists, with 97 passes at 84% accuracy and 8 key passes. He also contributes defensively with 6 tackles, 1 block and 5 interceptions, plus 33 duels (16 won). The duel between Evanilson’s link‑up play and Gakpo’s multi‑phase influence could tilt the territorial battle, especially in transition.

Head-to-Head: Last Meetings

Recent clashes between Bournemouth and Liverpool have produced goals and momentum swings, with both sides enjoying big wins and painful defeats. Here are the most recent meetings across all competitions:

  • 24 January 2026: Bournemouth 3-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
  • 15 August 2025: Liverpool 4-2 Bournemouth (Premier League)
  • 1 February 2025: Bournemouth 0-2 Liverpool (Premier League)
  • 21 September 2024: Liverpool 3-0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
  • 21 January 2024: Bournemouth 0-4 Liverpool (Premier League)

Bournemouth vs Liverpool Prediction

Stats suggest a match where Liverpool control large spells but cannot take anything for granted. Bournemouth’s league record of LDDD masks the fact they have scored in every game and failed to keep a clean sheet; their goals for (1.5 per match) and against (1.8 per match) point towards another high‑event contest. They also tend to concede late, with a significant share of goals allowed in the 76–90 minute window.

Liverpool’s recent tournament form is more solid: DDWD in the league, with 2 clean sheets and just 1.0 goal conceded per game. Their goals are spread across the 0–15, 46–60 and 76–90 minute ranges, indicating they can start fast and finish strongly. Head‑to‑head patterns lean heavily Liverpool’s way overall, but Bournemouth’s 3-2 win in January 2026 at this venue shows the hosts can exploit defensive lapses.

The prediction model gives Bournemouth only a 10% chance of victory, with a 45% chance of a draw and 45% for a Liverpool win. That underlines Liverpool as clear favourites, but also highlights a very real likelihood of shared points. Given Bournemouth’s attacking output and Liverpool’s slight tendency to draw, a competitive, goal‑scoring draw looks plausible.

Predicted Score: Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool

Bournemouth Recent Form

Bournemouth’s recent form in the Premier League reads LDDD. They are yet to win but have been hard to beat, drawing three of four matches. Offensively they average 1.5 goals per game and have not failed to score, but defensively they concede 1.8 per match, with many goals arriving in the final quarter of games, suggesting late‑game concentration issues.

Liverpool Recent Form

Liverpool’s recent Premier League form is DDWD. They remain unbeaten with one away win and three draws. They score 1.5 goals per game and concede just 1.0, with two clean sheets already. Their defensive record is notably stronger than Bournemouth’s, and their ability to avoid defeat so far underpins their status as favourites here.

Bournemouth Possible Starting Lineup

GK: M. Di Gregorio or Đ. Petrović; Defenders: A. Smith, Antόnio Silva, J. Hill, A. Truffert; Midfielders: L. Cook, T. Adams, M. Tavernier, R. Christie, J. Kluivert; Forwards: Evanilson.

Bournemouth’s squad list suggests a likely 4-2-3-1 shape, which they have already used 4 times in tournament statistics. Smith and Truffert provide width from full‑back, while Antόnio Silva and Hill can anchor the defence. In midfield, Cook and Adams offer stability, allowing Tavernier and Christie to push higher and support Evanilson. Tavernier’s form makes him the key attacking outlet, while Evanilson’s 3 assists underline his role as both target man and creator.

Liverpool Possible Starting Lineup

GK: Alisson Becker; Defenders: J. Gomez, V. van Dijk, M. Kerkez, K. Tsimikas or J. Frimpong; Midfielders: W. Endo, A. Mac Allister, D. Szoboszlai, C. Gakpo, F. Wirtz; Forwards: A. Isak.

Liverpool have also favoured a 4-2-3-1 in tournament statistics. Van Dijk marshals the back line, with Kerkez a dynamic option at full‑back despite already collecting 2 yellow cards. In midfield, Endo and Mac Allister can control tempo, while Szoboszlai and Wirtz add creativity and pressing. Gakpo’s 3 assists and Isak’s 3 goals make them the primary attacking threats, supported by depth options like F. Chiesa and B. Barcola from the bench.

Bournemouth Team News

No significant absences reported.

Liverpool Team News

No significant absences reported.

Injuries & Suspensions

Bournemouth:

  • None reported.

Liverpool:

  • None reported.

Betting Tips: Bournemouth vs Liverpool

Exactly 3 distinct markets are highlighted below, based on current form, head‑to‑head trends and available odds.

  • Result Tip: Back Liverpool Draw No Bet or Double Chance (Draw or Liverpool). Prediction models give Bournemouth a 10% chance to win, with 45% each for draw and Liverpool. The 1x2 market prices Liverpool between 1.91 and 2.15, implying roughly a 46.5–52.4% win probability, making them clear favourites but with draw risk. Using the “Double chance: draw or Liverpool” angle aligns with both the 45% draw probability and Liverpool’s unbeaten record.
  • Goals Tip: Over 1.5 total goals. Bournemouth matches average 3.25 goals (6 scored, 7 conceded in 4), and Liverpool’s games average 2.5 (6 scored, 4 conceded). Recent H2H at this venue includes scores of 3-2, 0-2, 0-4 and 1-0, showing frequent multi‑goal games. With both teams averaging 1.5 goals scored per match, over 1.5 goals is a logical, relatively conservative goals play. Use the closest over‑goals price available in your sportsbook, noting that market odds will typically sit in the low 1.20–1.40 range for this line.
  • Value Tip: Marcus Tavernier to score or assist. Tavernier has 3 goals in 4 appearances, 12 shots (8 on target), 8 key passes and 2 yellow cards, indicating a high‑usage, high‑impact role. Bournemouth have not failed to score this season and tend to create chances through him and Evanilson (3 assists). While player prop odds are not listed here, any price that implies significantly less than a 30–35% chance of Tavernier contributing a goal or assist could offer value given his current involvement.

Odds are accurate at the time of writing and subject to change. Please gamble responsibly.

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